Major Economists do not see a big wave of foreclosures
Millions of homeowners have been sheltered from foreclosures since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. But with mortgage forbearance programs and foreclosure moratoriums winding down, is there going to be a surge in home foreclosures? While some investors are hoping to see a rise in problem properties, top real estate market economists don't anticipate a huge number of forced home sales by lenders. "We don't think we are going to see a tsunami of foreclosures occurring," said Dr. James Gaines, the longtime economist with the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University. "I don't think we will start seeing anything until the first half of next year. "It's a relatively small number of homes still getting mortgage forbearance.
At the end of August, only about 3% U.S. home loans were in forbearance plans, according to the latest estimate from the Mortgage Bankers Association of America. That adds up to about 1.6 million homeowners. The share of home mortgages in payment forbearance is less than half what it was a year ago. Home foreclosures have been almost nonexistent in the last year, with most lenders holding back from forcing property sales. Any rise in home foreclosures won't compare with previous down cycles, Gaines said. "There will be nothing on the scale we saw back in 2008 and 2009," he said. "We don't see it happening — particularly in Texas." Because of big increases in home values in D-FW and other Texas markets in the last few years, most homeowners have large amounts of equity in their houses.
Dallas Morning News, September 10, 2021
Interesting Facts, You Tube 2019
Riding the rising tide of energy prices—and the job growth that goes with it—Texas claims the top spot in CNBC's 2018 America's Top States for Business rankings.
This is familiar territory for the Lone Star State, which becomes the first four-time winner in our annual study, now in its 12th year. But it has been a long time coming. This is the first time since 2012 that Texas has claimed top honors. Not coincidentally, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil—the state's most important export—peaked at just over $108 per barrel that year, a figure it has not seen since. But it has risen enough—around 60 percent in the last year, powering through the $70 per barrel mark in June—to turbocharge the $1.6 trillion Texas economy.
"The Texas economy remains in a broad-based expansion," said Dallas Federal Reserve economists Christopher Slijk and Jason Saving in a recent report. "The state's energy sector continues to boom, and areas of the state tied to oil and gas are growing at their strongest pace since 2014." Texas has added more than 350,000 jobs in the past year, with the largest increase in the energy sector. Put another way, 1 in 7 jobs created in the United States in the past year was created in Texas.
Texas is home to 39 companies in the Standard and Poor's 500 index, including AT&T, ExxonMobil and Texas Instruments. And it boasts some of the nation's largest privately-held companies, including supermarket operator H-E-B, Neiman Marcus Group and Hunt Oil. With solid economic growth last year — including a torrid 5.2 percent state GDP increase in the fourth quarter — Texas finishes first in our Economy category this year.
Dallas-Fort Worth's job base grew the fastest of the nation's dozen biggest metro areas over the year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. From November 2016 to November of last year, the D-FW metro added 100,400 jobs — a 2.8 percent increase. That was also the largest increase by sheer number.
Much of D-FW's growth was spurred by expansion in professional and business services, which added 31,100 positions. That's no surprise as regional leaders work to recruit corporate headquarters that employ thousands of highly paid workers in sprawling new developments anchored by offices. In particular, financial services companies have expanded their head counts in areas where living costs are cheaper than the coastal cities where those companies often have their headquarters. Charles Schwab, for instance, is expected to have 2,600 workers at its campus in Westlake that's under construction.
Now, economists say, the biggest challenge in many fast-growing cities is to find enough workers to fill those jobs as baby boomers age out of the workforce and immigration slows. At the national and state levels, unemployment has been at record lows. Still, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas predicted that Texas, whose growth has has been powered in large part by D-FW in recent years, will continue to add jobs at top speed in 2018.
America's cities have earned a reputation for drawing young workers and retirees, eager for short commutes and cosmopolitan life, but the suburbs may be ready for their prime time. Millennials are starting to settle down and form families, which are prompting more of them to consider suburban life. At the same time, the high cost of living in some major cities means suburbia offers a more compelling argument for some workers and businesses. Examining county-level data can help identify trends about growth and economic diversification, said Matthew Mowell, senior economist at Oxford Economics, which started forecasting county-level economic growth earlier this year. Over the next five years, suburban counties are likely to have a greater share of millennials, which means the suburbs are likely to grow faster than the cores of metropolitan areas. Paying heed to such trends can help real estate investors and businesses make decisions about where to put their money. Six out of the nine counties forecast to have the strongest economic growth over the next five years are suburban. Two are considered core counties, or urban, while one is exurban. The nine counties Oxford Economics forecasts will show the strongest economic growth through 2022.
#1- Denton County (Dallas) – 4.1% Economic Growth
Denton County is forecast to experience the strongest economic growth over the next five years, at 4.1 percent. Home to parts of Dallas and Fort Worth, the county is experiencing population and economic growth, although on a smaller base than some of country's other top-growing regions. Major employers in the county include University of North Texas and Walmart (WMT), as well as Peterbilt Motors (PCAR), which is located in the city of Denton.
#2 – Collin County (Dallas) – 4.0% Economic Growth
Collin County, Texas, in the Dallas-Forth Worth area, is projected to enjoy 4 percent compound annual growth rate over the next five years. The county's economic base is expanding beyond traditional suburban industries like retail and into technology and professional services, Mowell said.
#3 – Montgomery County, TX (Houston) – 3.4%
#4 – Wills County, Il (Chicago exurbs) 3.2%
#5 – San Francisco County, CA – 3.2%
#6 – Ft Bend County, TX (Houston) – 3.1%
#7 – Washington County, Oregon (Portland) – 3.1%
#8 – Adams County, CO (Denver) – 2.9%
#9 – Santa Clara County, CA – 2.9%
California Giant Relocates to Dallas
One of North Texas' largest job imports this year, health-care giant McKesson, will formally open the doors to its new Irving campus Thursday with plans to bring nearly 1,000 jobs to the Dallas-Fort Worth area. San Francisco-based McKesson delivers pharmaceuticals, business services and medical supplies to hospitals, health-care systems and retail pharmacies across the country and around the world. It has more than 70,000 employees. One-third of pharmaceuticals used each day in North America are delivered by McKesson. The U.S. pharmaceutical distributor is one of the largest announced corporate moves to North Texas, along with other giants like State Farm with 8,000 workers, JP Morgan Chase with 6,000 workers and Toyota with 5,000 workers. McKesson's new campus has capacity for about 2,400 people.
McKesson already had approximately 900 employees at several different offices in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. With its new corporate office in Irving, McKesson pledged to add 975 new jobs and spend $157 million in capital investments. It's been awarded a grant of $9.75 million in economic incentives from the Texas Enterprise Fund -- one of the largest grants awarded by the state since Toyota. The city of Irving is also providing more than $2 million in incentives to McKesson. The major corporate office will become the new home of the company's U.S. Pharmaceuticals Group, which will move from San Francisco to Irving.
- Dallas Morning News, April 5, 2017